Rabobank sees favorable outlook for Brazilian chicken despite new Newcastle focus
An outbreak identified in Santa Catarina affects turkey farms in three nearby cities, and the bank's assessment depends on the problem not spreading.
BY THE X-TRADER NEWS NEWSROOM · REPORTING FROM MONEY TIMES · 2 MIN
Rabobank assesses that the outlook for Brazilian chicken exports remains favorable, even with the confirmation of yet another outbreak of Newcastle Disease, this time in Santa Catarina. According to the bank, this reading has one condition: the problem cannot spread to other regions.
On the 28th, the Ministry of Agriculture reported the third case of the disease in birds from Santa Catarina. The outbreaks appear on turkey farms in the municipalities of Nova Itaberaba, Coronel Freitas and Nova Erechim, which are within a radius of around 20 km, according to Rabobank.
Santa Catarina is the second largest producer of chicken meat in Brazil, and the country leads the global ranking of exports of the product. Therefore, the episode is of direct interest to those who follow the international protein trade.
According to Rabobank, relevant importers are only embargoing the affected region, and not the entire country. This geographic restriction design is what supports the bank's optimistic view of foreign sales.
The caveat is precisely in the propagation. The condition set by Rabobank is that the problem does not spread to other producing areas, which makes monitoring new outbreaks the central point of the analysis.
What changes for the investor
For those who invest in the stock market and follow the animal protein sector, the decisive factor is the geographic extension of the cases. As long as the embargoes remain restricted to the focus region, the favorable outlook highlighted by Rabobank remains. If the disease reaches other regions, the scenario changes, and it is worth following the announcements from the Ministry of Agriculture and the reaction of importers.
Automatically translated from Portuguese.
