Lula's re-election causes biggest jump in history in pre-fixed rates and reignites debate on Treasury

The pre-fixed Treasury maturing in 2032, which paid 12.89% per year on Friday, began yielding 15.78% at the opening on Monday, after Lula's re-election in the second round. According to Ramiro Gomes Ferreira, manager and founder of Clube do Valor, it was the biggest leap in the history of Tesouro Direto, greater than that of the pandemic, the 2008 crisis and Joesley Day.

The movement was accompanied by significant price losses. According to the presenter, the pre-fixed rate lost 11% in value in a single day, and the Treasury IPCA+ due in 2050 fell 23% at the opening on Monday. The 2032 IPCA+ fell 5%, while the 2050 index closed down 12.6%, which, in the channel's assessment, illustrates how longer titles fluctuate more. The Treasury canceled the week's auctions and repurchased almost R$15 billion in bonds to calm the market, according to the video.

The seismograph of fear

To explain the phenomenon, Ramiro compares the bond rate to a seismograph: when investors are suspicious of the country's future, they charge higher interest rates to finance the government, rates rise and bonds already in the portfolio lose value. The presenter listed episodes from the last 12 years, from Dilma Rousseff's reelection in 2014, to the loss of investment grade in 2015, to the leak of Joesley Batista's audio in 2017, to the pandemic and the rise in inflation in 2021, when the Selic rose from 2% to 13.75%.

The manager also cited December 2024, when the dollar hit a record and, according to him, the market did not believe in the Lula government's spending cut package. In that episode, the pre reached 15.5% and the IPCA+ reached 7.8% per year. In March 2026, the war in Iran led the Treasury to suspend auctions, an example that the tremors also come from abroad.

The recent cycle, described the presenter, had two bets in three weeks. Before the first round, pre-2032 paid 14.15%. With Flávio Bolsonaro at the helm, the market began to bet on a tougher government with spending, and rates recorded the biggest drop since 2008. With Lula's victory, the pre closed on Monday at 15.5%, above the previous level. The long IPCA+, he noted, ended the day close to the pre-first round level.

The account that, according to the channel, many people get wrong

The most common calculation error, in Clube do Valor's view, is comparing the 15.5% pre with the sum of 7.8% IPCA+ and the expected inflation for next year (4.34%), reaching around 12%. For the presenter, the correct comparison considers the average inflation expected until 2032. With Monday's rates, the market would price around 7% per year: the pre only exceeds the IPCA+ if the average inflation is below that. Inflation in 12 months is around 4.5%.

Ramiro recalled that the pre-fixed rate, which suffered at various times, was the highlight of 2025, with a 20% increase in long products, the best result in nine years. He also cited a 25-year survey by the Focus bulletin, in which the inflation forecast for the following year was off, on average, by 1.6 percentage points.

For the presenter, the mistake made by 90% of investors is to concentrate their entire portfolio on a bet on the future of the country. He argues that the IPCA+ has greater weight for long-term objectives such as retirement, that the pre-fixed rate serves goals with a defined value and date, and that the post-fixed rate covers money that may be needed at any time. According to him, Clube do Valor clients hold all three types of titles, with IPCA+ generally a slightly larger share. This is an evaluation of the channel, not a recommendation from the newspaper.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.