US warns Gulf allies of new round of attacks on Iran after midterm elections

The United States has warned Gulf allies about a possible short-term resumption of attacks on Iran after the mid-term US legislative elections, according to the program "Fox News @ Night", shown in a clipping published by the Fox Business channel. General Keith Kellogg stated that, the day after the vote, "you better prepare."

For Kellogg, the American president understands that Iran will probably rebuild, or try to rebuild, its nuclear facilities. He cited the so-called "Pickaxe Mountain", about a mile and a half away from one of the attacked sites, where, according to the general, the Iranians install centrifuges and enriched uranium. The presenter summarized the idea as a new offensive against nuclear sites.

Analyst assessment of the target

Rabbi Chaim Mentz, a guest on the program, called the action an "easy target" to ensure that Iran does not become a nuclear power. According to him, the Iranians work under tarpaulins placed at the entrance to the mountain so that satellites cannot see what is happening there. In his assessment, the US could remove this capability and “push the problem forward”.

Mentz also considered that it will be much more difficult to see a regime change in Tehran, even if everyone hopes for it. He said there was no certainty that the nuclear material was still at the site and argued that the work should have been completed a long time ago, which, he said, now opens up a dilemma about where to look.

Doctor Sheila Nazarian, also a panelist, described Iranians as a "hardened" people, subjected to sanctions for much of the last 50 years. According to her, today the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) exercises military control in practice, and the mullahs would be without real power. She stated that the IRGC warned the population that, without force, the country would fragment into different territories if the Americans entered.

Election in Israel and Netanyahu’s future

The program also dealt with the first Israeli election since the Hamas terrorist attacks, on October 7, 2023. Quoting commentator Ben Shapiro, the debate pointed out that the chances of Benjamin Netanyahu remaining as prime minister are "extremely high": either there will be no government formed and he will remain interim, or there will be a unity government, or he will form a coalition that attracts an opposition party.

According to the presenter, the night before the race seemed close, but now it didn't seem so close. Nazarian recalled that the Israeli Parliament requires 61 seats to govern and that Netanyahu would be in the 50s. Mentz stated that around 17 seats would go to Muslim Arabs and that, in his assessment, Netanyahu will leave the election and join the American president to conclude what he called "unfinished business" against Iran.

What to watch out for

The transcript does not contain market figures or economic projections. Still, the prospect of further escalation in the Middle East is a geopolitical risk factor that is often followed by investors in oil, interest rates, the dollar and stock markets, including the Nasdaq. The points to observe, based on what was said in the program, are the date of possible action after the American elections, the confirmation of the facts about the Iranian nuclear program and the formation of the government in Israel.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.